Climate change induced migration, is India ready to stop it

 

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that climate change is adversely affecting ecosystems, infrastructure, income, gender, food, nutrition, health and livelihoods of 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide.

It is also highlighted in the report that global surface temperatures will exceed the targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels set in the historic Paris Agreement (2015).           

Climate change is causing global threats such as cyclones, hurricanes, hot temperatures, droughts, frequent wildfires, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and floods.

Accidents caused by heavy rains and damage are affecting agricultural income, while floods have weakened and destroyed strategies related to communications, power networks, bridges, causeways and railways.

The combined effects of climate change, environment and conflict risks affect all dimensions of people's lives. From their safety to their health, food, agriculture and water to economic security every aspect is affected.

In these circumstances, survival becomes a challenge for humans and wild animals, and they find displacement as the only solution.

Although displacement/migration is not the primary means of people's adaptation, but in the absence of other options many are forced to do so, usually within their own country. In the last decade, the figures of human displacement are continuously increasing at the global level.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), in 2021, 23.7 million new internal displacements occurred globally due to natural disasters; In which the largest displacement in terms of disasters in 2021 occurred in China (6.0 million), Philippines (5.7 million) and India (4.9 million).

In 2018, 61 percent of the total new 28 million internally displaced people in 148 countries were due to disasters. In comparison, 39 percent were due to conflict and violence. According to the IDMC, the storms displaced 9.3 million people and flooded 5.4 million. Similarly, more countries reported displacement due to disaster than to conflict and violence: 144 for disaster and 55 for conflict and violence. According to the United Nations, disasters and geophysical hazards have caused an average of 3.1 million displacements per year since 2008.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the world saw large-scale displacements triggered by climate and weather events in 2020 and 2021.

What does the IDMC report say on migration in India?

Increasing rainfall unpredictability and warmer temperatures are making seasonal and long-term migration necessary for the sustainability of livelihoods in many countries, including India.

Since the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) first began collecting data on persons displaced due to disasters in India in 2018, now this population group has been growing steadily. In 2019, 1.6 million people displaced by disasters were still in camps or places outside their homes.

This was a "highly conservative estimate" as displacement by disasters prior to this year had not been taken into account. At 2.678 million people, India had the highest number of people displaced by disasters and extreme weather events in 2018.

In recent decades, India has witnessed a rapid pace of migration from areas with intensive agriculture to populated megacities, which are faced with increasing threat from climate hazards. According to the report, there are currently 14 million people in India who have been displaced due to climate change.

India is very vulnerable to climate induced migration problems. It ranks 7th in the Global Climate Risks Index 2021, an annual ranking from research group Germanwatch.

On the other hand, the 'Environmental Status of India Report 2022' states that India is the fourth most affected country in the world in terms of migration due to climate change. Here in 2020-21, more than 30 lakh people were forced to leave their homes.

A large number of rivers in India, such as the Ganges and the Yamuna, are fed by glaciers. Increased glacial melting as a result of rising temperatures causes frequent flooding of rivers, both displacing people living along the coast, and further reducing India's access to clean water.

Will climate induced migration increase in India?,

According to the XDI(Cross Dependency Initiative ) survey, India was ranked third among the top 50 countries most at risk from climate change impacts in 2050. Of the 20 global regions, 16 are ranked as at risk, with China topping the list, while the US comes second.

According to the survey, by 2050 in India alone, 4.5 crore people will have to leave their homes and migrate to other places due to climate related disasters. This number is three times the number of people currently fleeing due to extreme events. In other words, the number of people migrating due to climate change will triple by 2050.

While India's health budget is only 2.1 percent of GDP, the poor population is still directly affected by the poor state of health infrastructure. Repeated droughts, crop losses, forest fires, landslides and erratic rainfall harm the financial and mental well-being of the population, leading to violence, suicide, and migration.

Droughts, rising sea levels, and flooding are heaping extra pressure onto people who are already struggling to get by, forcing them from their homes in order to survive.

In 2020 alone, India suffered its worst locust attack in decades, three cyclones, a nationwide heat wave, and flooding that killed hundreds and forced thousands more to evacuate. The country’s first ever climate change assessment suggests things are only going to get worse, with temperatures predicted to rise by 4.4°C by the end of the century.

Climate change and extreme weather events exacerbate the situation for vulnerable communities whose members are already struggling to make a living.

Is India ready to control such exodus?,

Human-induced climate change has disrupted the normal functioning of Earth systems, the atmosphere, ocean and land. These systems have begun to respond to anthropogenic changes in the form of heat waves, rainfall variations, droughts, floods and cyclones.

Climate change is affecting all parts of the world, and if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut in half this decade, more severe impacts can be expected in the future. Adaptation actions are the need of the hour.

India is under pressure to mitigate climate change by controlling emissions growth. But it will also need to adapt to growing water scarcity, droughts, floods, cyclones and other natural calamities.

India's commitment to the Paris Agreement and leadership in the Global Solar Alliance show promising signs on climate action. But we need to do more. On the front of inclusive growth, our response must consider the various vulnerabilities of those who live in and live in both rural and urban areas as well.

The agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors, which collectively employ the majority of India's working population, are all affected by the severe effects of climate change, with the lack of supportive government policies forcing people to migrate in search of employment.

Although the country has developed a fairly good disaster management system, more resources are needed to develop it further. In a country like India where competition for jobs and resources is already very high, this issue is also repeatedly exploited for political gains.

We must invest in ecological infrastructure that protects local economic well-being, which can be achieved through the MGNREGA scheme, it is time India recognized the rights of climate migrants.

Given the current situation in India related to climate change, environmental disasters and disaster migration and displacement, there is a strong need for a people-centred national policy on migration or displacement due to climate disasters.

Image credit: Supratim Bhattacharjee(